As one recent NPR headline read, “Bin Laden Is Dead; Al-Qaida Isn’t“. So, as we learn more and more about the last years of Osama bin Laden’s life holed up in Abbottabad, the increasingly more relevant security question is: who grabs the dangling reins of Al-Qaeda?
In the absence of any announcement from the organization thus far, we can quickly do some open source analysis on a few of the more prominent public figures that may be the next front man for Al-Qaeda.
Ayman al-Zawahiri
It’s widely figured that Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s longtime second in command, will lead Al-Qaeda tactically. However, as you can see below, recent analyses of the organization’s command structure suggest a growing rift around al-Zawahiri to the degree that conspiracy theories have emerged that he was responsible for giving away Bin Laden’s position to the United States.
Mentions of Zawahiri over the last seven days.
When considering al-Zawahiri’s as the leader of Al-Qaeda, it might be valuable to look at his publicly recorded and discussed activity over the last 12 months. What we find are some significant spikes during recent months.
The first is stated support for Islamic rule in Egypt after Mubarak’s departure as president. The second, and perhaps more interesting, is a call for military backing of Libyan rebels attempting to overthrow Muammar Ghaddafi as the prospect of a civil war in Libya presents the possibility of a power vacuum for Al-Qaeda to fill.
Last 12 Month Timeline for Ayman al-Zawahiri
Saif al-Adel
Egyptian-born Saif al-Adel is the pseudonym of a long time confidant to Bin Laden. Al-Adel was believed to have been detained in Iran for almost a decade before being recognized as present in North Waziristan sometime in or before October 2010.
There was even speculation made around the time of his recognition back in the field that al-Adel would “be the new face of al-Qaida in 2011.”
![Location of Saif Al-Adel al-Qaida During Last 12 Months]( "Saif Al-Adel Overview - Location Highlights")
- Saif Al-Adel Over – Last 12 Months (click for view)
It’s seems clear that Saif al-Adel has been rooted in Pakistan for some time now and appears once again embedded in the political structure of Al-Qaeda.
Abu Yahya al-Libi
The first individual outside of the Afghanistan/Pakistan space is Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan that in the last few months released a video calling for “religious war” in Libya. His messaging in recent months has been both one of criticism against Western influences in Libya, but also one supportive of anti-Gaddafi forces.
Recent Coverage of Abu Yahya al-Libi - Click for details
Though al-Libi is primarily a regional figure, he does seem to offer the best access to one of the most volatile regions on the globe right now,which Al-Qaeda would no doubt consider beneficial as a foothold.
Anwar al-Awlaki
Finally, there’s US-born Anwar al-Awlaki, who we’ve reported on in the past and is a leading figure in Al-Qaeda’s Yemen presence.
Recent Events for Anwar al-Awlaki - Click for Details
Clearly, given the above overview of al-Awlaki’s recent months, he is perceived as a high value target for the US as drone strikes were launched in an effort to kill al-Awlaki just days after the assault on Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad.
What’s the other bump in momentum around late March and early April? The cluster is a series of events and reports related to al-Awlaki urging on the Arab Spring protests against long standing dictatorships in the Middle East claiming that the revolutions were “good for the Muslims, good for the mujahideen and bad for the imperialists of the west and their henchmen in the Muslim world.”
Conclusions
The answer to the question titling this post is not clear, and that may be an indicator in its own way. As Al-Qaeda spread under Bin Laden, its regional factions have become very distinct entities. The public announcement of an individual as the organizational head still seems likely, but the reality may be that multiple players will rise to prominence regionally as an alternative to establishing a “new Bin Laden.” The aforementioned split around al-Zawahiri makes a divided leadership seem an even greater possibility.
One theme that does consistent is the desire from each of these individuals to leverage unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to create a security vacuum in which Al-Qaeda can assume a lasting presence. We previously discussed the failure so far for Al-Qaeda to leverage instability caused by pro-democracy protests, but it seems these prospective leaders have not given up on the potential for an advantage to be taken.
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