Information continues to stream out of every major media outlet allowing us to fill in details on the intelligence and operation that led to a team of Navy SEALs killing Osama bin Laden this past Sunday.
But Bin Laden’s location (at least publicly) was uncertain for so many years, and now suddenly, we’ve experienced a deluge of information – some valid, some not so much – about the former al-Qaeda leader’s whereabouts. Consider the timeline we can build on Bin Laden’s interaction with Pakistan solely from web content published today.
From Web Content Published on May 4 - Bin Laden's Interaction with Pakistan
So, the first thing we wanted to do was turn back the clock and ask: was there a hint from someone out there that Bin Laden was nested in Abbottabad?
We use Recorded Future to seek out co-occurring references for Bin Laden and Abbottabad in web content published before April 30, 2011 with indication of just how unexpected this strike was to the public.
From what we can see in the public domain, there doesn’t appear to have been even a hint that he was in that exact location.
However, looking back, we can find lots of speculation about his presence in Afghanistan including statements attributed to a NATO official in October 2010 claiming Bin Laden “is living comfortably in northwest Pakistan close to his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.”
Click to see full result set
Those were by no means the first suggestions that Bin Laden was hiding out in Pakistan. The volume of questions – tilting each day more toward accusations – aimed at the Pakistani government is growing louder with regards to whether they had been to some degree harboring Bin Laden.
The timeline below shows some interesting points over the last 12 months linking Bin Laden with Pakistan (content is limited to anything published before April 30 to give us a true “before” picture).
Also, given the news that the raid on Bin Laden’s compound has been weeks, if not longer, in training, it’s worth reviewing the political relationship between the US and Pakistani governments during the last month.
The sentiment of cooperation feels lukewarm at best, and it seems clear that the respective military and intelligence parties are full of mistrust. If there turns out to have been even a hint of support for Bin Laden, it’s sure to have a lasting impact on the two countries political relations, the least of which could be the rescinding or suspension of billions dollars in aid the US provides Pakistan.
We’ll have more shortly on this issue including a post analyzing the next leader(s) expected to take over the reins of al-Qaeda.